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North Korea Is Preparing to Face up the US in 2022

Kim Jong Un volition probable conduct more advanced weapons tests this year in his own version of "maximum force per unit area."

North Korea Is Preparing to Confront the US in 2022  

This photograph provided by the North Korean regime, shows what information technology says a test launch of a hypersonic missile in North Korea on Jan. 5, 2022.

Credit: Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP, File

Since Pyongyang rejected the Biden administration'south proposal of diplomatic talks as insufficient to entice Kim Jong Un back to the negotiating tabular array, Due north Korea seems to take recalibrated its strategy in dealing with the United states. While the North'due south terminate of year report clearly condensed the outcome of its review on foreign policy and replaced Kim's New Yr'southward Day address, it is expected that Democratic people's republic of korea volition carry more than advanced weapons tests and hold war machine parades to draw full attention from the U.S. and the international customs in the upcoming months. This tin exist seen as North Korea'southward own fashion of a "maximum pressure" strategy, meant to change the United States' fundamental policy toward the country – what Pyongyang calls the "hostile policy" – earlier restoring the talks.

North Korea'south 2022 Security and Foreign Policy

Despite the 10th anniversary of Kim Jong Un'southward ascension to power last year, he did non deliver a New year's Day address in 2022. While Due north Korean country media reported the results of the v-24-hour interval plenary meeting of the Workers' Party Eighth Central Committee on December 27-31, information technology is puzzling that Pyongyang did not share details on its foreign policy and strategy for 2022. It but said that the meeting reviewed "principled bug" and relevant strategic directions to cope with the rapidly irresolute international political situation.

Many experts said the absenteeism of an announcement on Northward Korea's strange policy direction could be seen as providing "strategic flexibility" or room to maneuver in the uncertain external environment. Considering the upcoming events, the Beijing Winter Games in Feb and the S Korean presidential election in March, there are many uncertainties in the region. The possibility of military conflicts in Ukraine and Taiwan cannot be ruled out this yr either. Withal, those upcoming events will have only a limited affect on determining Northward Korea'due south approach to external affairs. China is probable to turn a bullheaded center to North korea'southward further missile tests if it stays silent during the Olympics. In addition, whoever the next South Korean president is, the foundation of Seoul'southward approach to Pyongyang volition not change without Washington's approving.

As a result, Pyongyang might have already evaluated the impacts of future external affairs and set its direction on the foreign policy by taking a "frontal breakthrough" and "strong to strong" strategy to deal with the U.S. and South korea. Thus, while it is strategically hidden from public reports, Democratic people's republic of korea has already prepared its military activity plans, such as a series of future missile and peradventure fifty-fifty nuclear tests in response to U.South. sanctions, the upcoming South korea-U.S. articulation armed forces exercises, and the potential victory of South Korean main opposition presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol in the ballot.

Northward Korea has already tested its missile capabilities six times this calendar month, signaling Pyongyang'due south clear intention to follow through with Kim'south 2021 pledge of strengthening the national armed services adequacy. Pyongyang will continue carrying out more than missile tests in the coming months to demonstrate advancements in its missile technologies. Kim believes that maximum pressure by demonstrating powerful nuclear and missile weapons might be the only way to push the U.Due south. to make concessions.

A Full Speed "Frontal Breakthrough"

Amid the deadlocked nuclear talks and the unprecedented COVID-xix pandemic, this year is especially of import for Kim. He volition need to show his stiff leadership on the 110th birth anniversary of Kim Il Sung, the country's founder, and the 80th nativity anniversary of Kim Jong Il, Kim'southward father, which are coming up in Apr and February, respectively. At the plenary session in December, Kim mainly focused on delivering his messages on the development of North Korea'due south rural and agricultural sector in a bid to revive his country's crippled economic system, which has been worsened past a brutal combination of U.N.-led economic sanctions, extreme anti-pandemic measures, and natural disasters since early 2020. Kim'southward hands, however, are tied every bit to the economic system as there is no long-term plan he can follow to tackle the state'southward devastating food shortages without undercutting his cocky-reliance arroyo, as aggressive anti-pandemic measures have completely cut North Korea off from the earth since early 2020. Information technology is believed that the merely long-term solution for the regime to ameliorate its economic situation is reopening the edge with China or resuming nuclear negotiations with the U.S. to elevator existing sanctions.

Given this situation, after two years of a self-imposed border lockdown, two cargo trains from Northward Korea crossed the border from Sinuiju to Dandong on Jan 16-17 to receive aid and bones necessities from Prc. Pyongyang might have decided to restart trade with People's republic of china to recover its economical situation since disinfection facilities have already been installed on the border area. Furthermore, the resumption of aid from Communist china could arrive possible for Pyongyang to push button forward its maximal nuclear strategy this twelvemonth, equally information technology will cushion North korea against the impact of farther sanctions. As the hegemonic race between the ii superpowers – the Usa and People's republic of china – is most probable to intensify in the hereafter, Due north Korea volition seek more close cooperation with China to revive its economy by resuming trade, while carrying out "tit-for-tat" responses to U.South. sanctions.

Even if Kim needs negotiations to discover a long-term solution for North korea'south economic difficulties, he will keep focusing on building his strong nuclear power at least until the global pandemic crisis is over. The current situation will prevent Northward Korean officials from coming together foreign delegations either in the country or abroad. Given the circumstances, therefore, this year is a perfect time for the regime to exert maximum pressure on the U.S. to achieve what it wants prior to restoring talks, as the U.S. is at present struggling with Russian federation in Eastern Europe and with Mainland china in Eastern asia.

Showcase of New Avant-garde Weapons

Starting off with its kickoff hypersonic missile examination of the yr on Jan five, North Korea has conducted six rounds of missile tests, including hypersonic missiles, prowl missiles, and short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMS), this month solitary. Amongst others, the North'southward 2nd hypersonic missile test on January eleven proved that it had successfully developed an advanced version of the hypersonic missile it first tested in September of last twelvemonth. Later that, North Korea fired its KN series of SRBMs on Jan fourteen and 18 in the wake of U.S. sanctions over the missile tests. Pyongyang has angrily criticized the U.S. and South korea for having a "double standard" toward the war machine activities conducted by the two Koreas. North korea deems the South korea-U.S. joint military drills equally proof of "hostile intent" that critically threatens the Northward's security while reiterating that its missile tests are for its "cocky-defence," not for targeting other countries. Pyongyang justifies its missile tests as function of its policy of responding to strength with strength.

As 2022 continues, North Korea volition likely bear witness off even more advanced missile weapons in order to fulfil the pledges made during the 8th Party Congress last year. In this context, North korea will exam new destructive weapons, and they will not be the typical SRBMs the N launched this month. Looking back on the missiles Democratic people's republic of korea examination-fired before the nuclear talks began in 2018 and the missiles it displayed in a war machine parade last yr, North korea's advanced series of "Pukkuksong" missiles are expected to be showcased this year. Democratic people's republic of korea will likely examination what it has been developing in recent years, including the improved version of its Pukkuksong-2 solid-fuel ballistic missile and the newest Pukkuksong-5 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).

Furthermore, Democratic people's republic of korea'due south country media recently reported that the state volition reconsider Kim's self-moratorium on testing nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). With this in listen, Pyongyang will also consider proving its strengthened long-range missile capabilities by showing off its miniaturized and multiple nuclear warheads, if necessary. If all these new missile technologies conduct fruit, the U.South. missile defence system volition be vulnerable to North Korea's new intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Prospects for Futurity Negotiations

Back in 2019, Kim said he no longer felt bound by his self-moratorium on nuclear and ICBM tests while reiterating that he will never come dorsum to the negotiating table unless the U.S. makes concessions. For North Korea, this means lifting the U.S.-led economic sanctions, withdrawing U.S. troops from South Korea, and suspending the joint South korea-U.S armed forces drills.

In this regard, what the U.Southward. and South Korea should bear in mind is that it is not the right time to activate their backchannels to restore talks with North Korea and seek a détente. Pyongyang is not prepare to return negotiations. Nevertheless, U.South. President Joe Biden must reassess his administration'south strategic patience policy, equally simply waiting for Pyongyang to return to diplomatic talks runs the risk of North korea eventually reaching an untouchable level of nuclear chapters. Furthermore, South Korea will also beef up its military adequacy to deal with nuclear threats from Democratic people's republic of korea, in particular as the conservative presidential candidate, Yoon, has claimed the right to deport a pre-emptive strike on the North. Accordingly, the situation as it stands could push button the existing arms race on the Korean Peninsula into a dangerous end game.

The Biden administration has presented an updated nuclear policy that will reduce the importance of nuclear weapons inside Washington'southward national security strategy. In November 2021, Biden and Xi Jinping agreed during their virtual summit to launch a serial of loftier-level artillery control talks. This shows that the Biden presidency is becoming more and more than conscious of the value of arms control agreements in restraining global nuclear artillery competition. Biden and Kim might be likewise interested in the establishment of an arms control framework on the Korean Peninsula – an attractive entry betoken for future negotiations, which can be the basic foundation of the long-term denuclearization procedure on the Korean Peninsula. In the long term, Washington might benefit a lot from such a framework. Multilateral nuclear arms control measures could prove a useful tool to reduce the arms race betwixt regional actors – namely North korea, People's republic of china, Republic of korea, and Nippon – and control the proliferation of nuclear weapons through the reduction of capabilities and assets in the region.